In a review article by Jon Keeley and Alex Syphard, examples from California show that fire regimes are sensitive to geographic and seasonal variation in the climate signal and that many factors will confound the ability to model future conditions.
Keeley, J.E., and A. Syphard. 2016. Climate change and future fire regimes: examples from California. Geosciences 6:37. 14pp. doi:10.3390/geosciences6030037